Following their huge upset win over the Buffalo Bills, the New England Patriots were unable to do the same to the Miami Dolphins but have a great opportunity to get back in the win column at home against the Washington Commanders. With a matchup expected to be one of the closer ones this Sunday, we’ve provided both a Commanders vs. Patriots prediction and Commanders vs. Patriots player props.
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The immediate thought when seeing Washington and New England matchup is a low-scoring affair. In fact, we’re surprised to see the total (over/under) listed higher than 40 points, so we’d certainly suggest adding under 41 to your Commanders vs. Patriots best bets.
However, for our best Commanders vs. Patriots prediction, we’re going to back New England to get the win at home. While they weren’t able to do so against Miami last week, Washington’s offense is the polar opposite. They have virtually no explosiveness and no consistent running game to speak of.
With the Pats having a top-10 rushing defense in the NFL, we don’t see the Commanders being able to move the ball effectively. As for Washington’s defense, we just saw them trade away two excellent pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the trade deadline. So, while New England’s offense isn’t high-flying either, they can still exploit a Washington defense that even allowed 33 points to the Denver Broncos.
With all that in mind, our best Commanders vs. Patriots prediction is on New England -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
For what it’s worth, New England is also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against Washington, but if you still want a different approach, let’s go through some Commanders vs. Patriots player props.
First up is a name that some fans may not even be familiar with, but a guy that we expect to get put on the map this week. With Pats WR Kendrick Bourne now on injured reserve, rookie WR Demario Douglas has his chance to shine. He’ll get to do so against the league’s fourth-worst passing defense in Washington.
The Commanders just allowed a 130 and 99-yard receiver in the same game last week, so we’ll trust QB Mac Jones to help Douglas go over 41.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook). As for the second pick from our Commanders vs. Patriots player props, we’re targeting Washington QB Sam Howell.
However, we’re targeting him in a way you may not expect. We’re expecting him to stay under his rushing yards total, and it isn’t even that high. We mentioned the Pats rushing defense, which has been great this season. Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert has been among the best in the NFL, yet he had just 46 rushing yards against New England last week.
They’ve also bottled up far more mobile QBs. Tua Tagovailoa had just eight rushing yards against the Pats last week, and that was with him having six carries. Therefore, we’re wrapping up our Commanders vs. Patriots player props with Howell under 13.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
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We have the latest Commanders vs. Patriots odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for you as well. Based on what you see below, a $115 bet on our Commanders vs. Patriots profits $100 as long as New England wins by at least three points.
Regarding our Commanders vs. Patriots player props, a $115 bet on Douglas profits $100 as long as he has at least 42 receiving yards, and a $115 bet on Howell profits $100 as long as he has 13 or fewer rushing yards.
Now that we’ve gone through our picks and the Commanders vs. Patriots odds, here is the latest injury report for New England in terms of who has not practiced as of Friday:
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