The Burning Question: Will Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence Overcome his Turnover Woes?

The Burning Question: Will Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence Overcome his Turnover Woes?

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — With three full seasons in the NFL under his belt, it seems Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has a turnover problem.

It’s an unfortunate reality for the former No. 1 overall pick. And if he’s ever going to become the elite quarterback many expected — and if the Jaguars are going to become playoff contenders — Lawrence is going to have to fix it.

Immediately.

“It’s the biggest thing that he has to focus on moving forward,” coach Doug Pederson said. “We just can’t have this amount of turnovers. How we turn the ball over, where we turn the ball over, it doesn’t matter. We’ve got to protect the football. That’s the No. 1 thing.

“For the quarterback, the person that touches the ball every snap, we got to make sure the emphasis is taking care of the ball.”

Lawrence has 60 career turnovers, which includes the NFL-high 21 that came this past season (14 interceptions, seven lost fumbles). There are only 11 quarterbacks who have made their debut since 1978 that have turned the ball over more in their first three seasons, per the Elias Sports Bureau. That list includes three Hall of Famers — Warren Moon (73, tied with Steve DeBerg for the most), Peyton Manning (64) and John Elway (61) — but it also includes Mark Sanchez and Blake Bortles (63 each).

While there was plenty of blame to go around for the Jaguars’ epic collapse — missing the playoffs after starting the season 8-3 — Lawrence’s ball security was a key issue. He had 10 total turnovers in the final five games he played (he missed the Carolina game with a sprained right shoulder), all of which the Jaguars lost.

“When you don’t turn the ball over, you win more games,” Lawrence said. “It’s definitely an emphasis [this offseason]. There’s a lot that goes into that. I’ve got to own my part and I’ve got to take better care of the ball. That’s going to give us a better chance to win a lot of these games.

“I understand that and I own that.”

As for how to fix the turnovers, it’s making sure he’s clean with his footwork, being more accurate with his throws, ensuring clear communication with receivers when there are checks and audibles, and taking care of the ball in the pocket and when running.

Quarterbacks sometimes get tagged with turnovers for which they’re not responsible — a ball bouncing off a receivers’ hands or a receiver running the wrong route or not making the correct route adjustment — but Lawrence said that kind of stuff will be minimized if he becomes a more consistent player.

He had an early-season stretch where he posted a QBR of 70 or higher in four of the five games (all victories) heading into the bye week. However, he surpassed a 70 QBR only twice in the final eight games in which he played.

“I needed to play better. It starts with the quarterback,” he said. “In this league, if the quarterback plays well, it gives you a chance every week and I can do a better job of just being consistently the player I know I can be. I thought I did that better earlier in the season and then as the season went on, I thought that there were times where I didn’t play my best. That’s when it’s needed, when the season is on the line and whatever it is, two minute drill at the end of the game, making that throw to [WR Calvin Ridley against Tennessee], that changes the game, things like that.

“I need to be my best in those moments and unfortunately, I wasn’t able to do that at times this year. In talking with the guys, I feel responsible for that.”

Lawrence did surpass 4,000 yards passing for the second consecutive year and threw 21 touchdown passes despite dealing with knee, ankle and shoulder injuries as well as a concussion. Those injuries undoubtedly played a role in some of his issues late in the season, especially since he never was a full participant in any practice after Dec. 15.

The turnovers and the Jaguars’ late-season swoon make this a critical offseason for Lawrence. Had he continued the impressive stretch shown in the second half of the 2022 season — when he had the league’s second-best completion percentage — one of the Jaguars’ priorities this offseason would likely have been signing him to a long-term deal.

Instead, the attention is on whether he can become an elite quarterback. But the fact that a big jump to elite status didn’t happen in Year 3 isn’t necessarily a red flag.

“We’ve seen a lot of growth from Year 1 to Year 2 and into Year 3,” said NFL Network analyst Kurt Warner, who was a late-bloomer himself before leading the St. Louis Rams to the Super Bowl XXXIV title after the 1999 season. “You see all the talent, you see all the ability, and you see a level of quarterback play from him over the last couple years that excites you. I think the biggest thing is just the consistency of playing at a high level. And for me, that’s, you know, making the reads you’re supposed to make, making the throws you’re supposed to make and doing it on a consistent level. And that to me is where the great quarterbacks are.

“… Trevor makes a lot of plays, but he doesn’t make all the plays yet. And that’s kind of what I’m waiting for. And that to me is where he needs to go from this point if he’s going to take that next jump. I think he’s a good quarterback and he’s shown us that he’s got special ability, but I think that’s the thing that’s holding him and holding this team back.”