Guard Paige Bueckers and coach Geno Auriemma are one win away from UConn’s first women’s national title since 2016. The Huskies are 6-to-6.5-point favorites vs. South Carolina on Sunday. Steph Chambers/Getty Images
The top two teams in women’s college hoops over the last couple of decades — the UConn Huskies (2) and the South Carolina Gamecocks (1) — meet on Sunday in the NCAA Women’s National Championship Game.
Geno Auriemma and the Huskies have won it all 11 times, but they haven’t cut down the nets since 2016.
Coach Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks — who have earned a 1-seed in nine of the last 11 NCAA Tournaments dating back to 2014 — won their first national title in program history in 2017, and they also won it all in both 2022 and 2024.
South Carolina (35-3, 15-1 SEC) memorably beat none other than UConn (36-3, 18-0 Big East) back in the 2022 national championship game, 64-49, handing the Huskies the only national title game loss of Auriemma’s career.
Below are where the over/under on Bueckers’ points and assists props are currently set at FanDuel.points
At this point, fading Bueckers feels like a terrible idea, even after her “quiet” night statistically (16 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals) in her team’s 85-51 romp over UCLA on Friday.
But there are much more tempting prop bets to consider in this game than those.
Sarah Strong o16.5 Points (-112 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
If UConn’s star freshman forward gets anything like the looks she’s gotten the last couple games, she has a great chance to score at least 20 points today. We should also note here that in the first battle between these teams, Strong finished with 16 points and 13 boards on 6-for-10 FG shooting.
With defenses doing everything they can to hound the red-hot Bueckers, the 6-foot-2 forward was lights-out against both USC in the Elite Eight and UCLA in the Final Four. She shot a combined 17-of-26 from the field (including 8-for-12 from 3-point range) in those games.
Strong is a matchup nightmare as both a dangerous shooter (38 percent from outside) and her team’s top rebounder (8.7 boards per game), and she’s playing her best ball of the season right now.South Carolina has been a tough team to score on (only one of the Cocks’ five opponents in the tournament has broken 60 points), and forwards Joyce Edwards and Chloe Kitts have the length to challenge Strong.
But she’s versatile enough to have yet another big game, especially given all the attention South Carolina will have to devote to Bueckers and Azzi Fudd, who is one of the top shooters in the country. Fudd memorably lit up South Carolina back in February, with 28 points on 6-for-10 3-point shooting.
Another tempting option is Strong’s points + rebounds prop.
With 30 or more P+R in three of her last five games — including 30 (22 points, 8 rebounds) vs. UCLA and 39 (22 points, 17 rebounds) vs. USC — Sarah Strong Over 26.5 Pts + Rebs (-118 at FanDuel) is hard to resist.
NCAA Women’s National Title Pick: UConn-SC
UConn is heavily favored in this game in large part because of how dominant it was when these teams met in the regular season.
South Carolina was a 7.5-point favorite at home when it hosted the Huskies in mid-February. UConn, however, jumped out to a 45-23 halftime lead en route to an 87-58 beatdown.
Can the Gamecocks, who were blown out despite holding star guard Paige Bueckers to just 12 points, keep Sunday’s rematch tight for 40 minutes?
South Carolina has shown in this tournament that it is good enough defensively to beat almost anyone, but UConn proved in its blowout over UCLA on Friday (and in the previous meeting vs. the Cocks) that it can not just win, but dominate, even without huge scoring nights by Bueckers.
Whether Bueckers (who racked up 10 assists vs. this team in February) once again plays the role of facilitator or ends up carrying the scoring burden herself, this is a brutal matchup for the Cocks.
I’ll take Bueckers and UConn to win and cover, with the projected No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft finally getting that elusive national championship ring in her fourth career Final Four appearance.